Gifford Consulting

Global Intelligence:   26-30 October 2026

Weekly Summary

Driven by intensifying geopolitical risks and climate pressures that are widening global competitiveness gaps, the renewable energy, bio-based chemicals, and alternative fuels sectors are undergoing significant international development. In the maritime sector, JERA and AM Green Ammonia have established a major green ammonia supply agreement from India to Japan, while Bunker One completed Latin America’s first deep-sea bioethanol bunkering using Copersucar fuel for a CMA CGM vessel. Additionally, Wasaline secured a long-term liquefied biogas supply from St1 Biokraft to lower Baltic ferry emissions. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) infrastructure is advancing rapidly; Vopak Terminals Australia is expanding storage in Port Botany, Green Sky Capital is developing a commercial HEFA-based SAF facility in Morocco, Singapore Airlines partnered with Aether Beacon for waste-derived SAF, and CarbonCore is progressing its GeorgiaSAF program in the US.

Biogas and biochemical platforms are scaling to displace conventional fossil resources. UPM inaugurated the world's largest wood-based biorefinery in Germany, and CJ Biomaterials partnered with Dongsung Chemical to launch PHA-based hotmelt adhesives. In biogas, Aemetis expanded its California dairy digester network, Cycle0 commissioned an agricultural biomethane plant in Italy, and Keppel was appointed to aggregate biomethane imports for Singapore’s power grid. Meanwhile, Purpose Energy commissioned an industrial wastewater-to-biogas facility in Ohio to power a Danone manufacturing plant.

Traditional biofuels and hydrogen infrastructure are receiving substantial capital. Rough Rider Energy is developing a massive corn-ethanol plant with carbon capture in North Dakota, and ADM is increasing its corn grind capacity in Nebraska to meet rising biofuel demand. In South Korea, Hyosung TNC expanded its sugarcane-derived bio-BDO operations. Hydrogen logistics are maturing as FNB Gas projects major expansions to Germany's pipeline backbone, Kawasaki Heavy Industries breaks ground on a liquid hydrogen plant in Japan, and KHI partners with Transgaz to develop Central and Eastern European hydrogen corridors. Finally, policy shifts are altering market dynamics, seen in Green Plains’ launch of its regenerative agriculture framework, Brazil's projected mandate increase to a 16% biodiesel blend, and Argentine biodiesel maintaining strong competitiveness against imported diesel due to shifting international price parities.

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Weekly Highlights - by Topic

1. Ammonia production: India. JERA Co., Inc. (JERA) and AM Green Ammonia (India) Private Limited jointly announced that it has entered into a Binding Heads of Agreement with AM Green regarding the long-term supply of green ammonia produced in India. Under the HoA, JERA and AM Green have agreed upon the terms of supply of approximately 70,000 metric tons of green ammonia annually over five years with potential extension of term for additional supply from AM Green’s production facility in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, India, to Japan. This marks one of the first large scale green ammonia based bunkering initiative globally. Link 29/10/2026.
2. Biobased chemicals: Germany. UPM today inaugurated its biorefinery in Leuna, Germany, marking the start of a new industrial platform for renewable chemicals made from wood. The biorefinery converts lignocellulosic biomass, primarily wood from sustainably managed forests and sawmill residues, into biochemicals. With an annual capacity of 220,000 tonnes, it is the largest facility of its kind in the world. The ramp-up has progressed further. Enzymatic hydrolysis and the production of lignin-derived specialty chemicals have reached stable operation, and UPM is ramping up sales of these products. Link 27/10/2026.
3. Biobased chemicals: South Korea. CJ Biomaterials, Inc., a division of South Korea-based CJ CheilJedang and a primary producer of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) biopolymers, has partnered with Dongsung Chemical to introduce the first PHA-based hotmelt adhesive available in the US market. Designed for packaging applications, the ECOVIVA® Hotmelt Adhesive is optimized for cosmetics packaging, household goods, electronics, and other consumer packaging, and it effectively bonds challenging substrates, including paper to aluminium and paper to acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS).Link 27/10/2026.
4. Biodiesel: Argentina. Bichos del Campo reports the increase in the international price of diesel, markedly improved the competitiveness of soybean oil in the Argentine market. In October, the import parity value of low-sulfur diesel in Uruguay – placed in distribution plant – is at a price equivalent to 2026 Argentine pesos per liter, according to data from the Regulatory Unit of Energy and Water Services of Uruguay (Ursea). Meanwhile, the official price of biodiesel in Argentina — determined by the Energy Secretariat for compulsory oil cutting — is at 1788 pesos per litre (biodiesel plant exit price). Although the price of Argentine biodiesel is necessary to add the cost of the freight to the refinery, which varies according to the supplier, even when adding that component remains much lower than the value of the imported diesel. Link 30/10/2026.
5. Biogas USA. Aemetis Inc. announced that its Aemetis Biogas subsidiary has completed construction and started operation of two additional dairy biogas digesters as part of the company’s biogas production network. Aemetis now operates 14 dairy digesters that receive manure feedstock from 17 dairy facilities that are expected to produce about 600,000 MMBtu per year of renewable natural gas (RNG). Biogas produced at the digesters is transported by 36 miles of Aemetis pipeline to a central biogas-to-RNG production facility in Keyes, California, which delivers RNG into the PG&E utility gas pipeline. Aemetis has signed agreements with a total of 50 dairies in the area to install digesters. Link. 29/10/2026.
6. Biogas: Italy. Cycle0 has commissioned its Corte Pila biomethane plant and new gas grid injection point in Mantua Province, in the Lombardy region of Italy. Following conversion of the plant to produce biomethane, using Cycle0 Group’s proprietary Biogasclean branded technology, the plant will now use up to 54,000 tonnes per annum of agriculture feedstock to produce renewable natural gas for Italian industrial customers. Operational since 2012, the plant was previously a gas-to-electricity plant with an installed electrical capacity of 1 MW. The plant will produce an average of 44 GWh of biomethane per annum for direct injection through the new grid connection, which was also constructed as part of Cycle0’s phase 1, €100 million investment plan for Italy. Link 29/10/2026.
7. Biogas: Singapore. Keppel Ltd, through its Infrastructure Division (Keppel), has been appointed by the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) to aggregate, import and sell up to 120 MW of biomethane in Singapore under the Nation’s 300 MW Biomethane Sandbox initiative for 15 years. Expected to commence by end-2028, the imported biomethane will be handled with  natural gas as an aggregated fuel portfolio for Keppel’s advanced combined cycle gas turbine plants on Jurong Island, as well as supplied to end-use customers. Link 28/10/2026.
8. Biogas: USA. PurposeEnergy commissioned a facility costing more than $40 million in Minster, Ohio, to process food-industry wastewater and organic residuals into renewable biogas, treated water and nutrient-rich soil amendments. The plant receives waste directly from Danone USA’s largest US yogurt manufacturing facility and other regional food and beverage producers. Designed to handle up to 250,000 gallons per day, it is expected to produce approximately 50,000 MMBtu of biogas annually at full operation. The gas will supply a dedicated boiler at Danone’s plant, displacing natural gas and avoiding an estimated 3,200 US tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions annually. Link 26/10/2026.
9. Biojet/SAF: Australia. Vopak Terminals Australia has welcomed the New South Wales (NSW) Government’s endorsement of its proposed aviation fuel infrastructure expansion project in Port Botany. Included as a key project to strengthen the state’s fuel security and resilience, the expansion reinforces Vopak’s commitment to providing robust, future-ready energy infrastructure. The expansion capacity of approximately 120,000 cbm will strengthen supply chain resilience to help protect consumers and businesses. Adding new storage tanks and pipeline connections to this independent infrastructure increases fuel storage capacity even more, while supporting sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to drive the sector’s decarbonisation. Link 26/10/2026.
10. Biojet/SAF: Morocco. Green Sky Capital, a clean-energy developer backed by Qatari and Saudi shareholders, is preparing to build one of the first commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel plants in Morocco and North Africa, drawing on financing arrangements now under review at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The plant is designed to produce roughly 176,000 to 200,000 tons of sustainable aviation fuel per year, alongside renewable diesel, renewable naphtha and small quantities of bio-propane. It will rely on Axens’ licensed Vegan Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology. Link 27/10/2026
11. Biojet/SAF: Singapore. Singapore Airlines (SIA) has signed an agreement to purchase up to 4,800 tons of next-generation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from Aether Beacon Pte Ltd. (Aether) over three years, with deliveries commencing in 2028. SIA is the first airline to purchase SAF produced at Project Beacon, Aether’s commercial production facility, which is being developed at Aster’s refining complex on Pulau Bukom in Singapore. The agreement marks SIA’s first purchase of SAF produced using new technology that converts waste carbon feedstocks into aviation fuel. Link 30/10/2026.
12. Biojet/SAF: USA. CarbonCore Inc. has advanced plans for its GeorgiaSAF™ programme, confirming Bainbridge and Decatur County as the focus of development for a proposed commercial‑scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facility in Southwest Georgia. The project aims to convert sustainably sourced woody biomass into aviation fuel for the Southeast and wider US market, creating a new long‑term industrial outlet for Georgia’s forestry sector. The company is progressing site assembly, infrastructure planning, rail access, utilities and technical diligence with local and regional partners. Link 30/10/2026.
13. Biomaterials: South Korea: Hyosung TNC  bio-BDO production in Vietnam and completing an integrated production network from sugarcane-derived raw materials to finished bio-based spandex expands the company's biobased business. Hyosung’s Vietnam bio-BDO facility has an initial production capacity of 50,000 metric tons per year. As part of a planned $1 billion investment in the project, the company intends to increase annual capacity in phases to 200,000 metric tons, in line with market demand. The facility produces bio-based 1,4-butanediol (bio-BDO) by fermenting sugars derived from sugarcane, replacing fossil-based feedstocks used in conventional BDO production. Link 27/10/2026.
14. Commercial Development: New Zealand. Masdar will explore up to NZ$1 billion of investment in renewable energy projects in New Zealand under a MoU signed with Invest New Zealand. The organisations said the MoU covers identifying and progressing projects in solar, wind and battery energy storage, including co-investment with New Zealand companies and Māori businesses. Masdar has a global clean energy portfolio of more than 65GW of renewable energy across four continents and is targeting 100GW by 2030. Link 29/10/2026.
15. Ethanol: USA. RoughRider Energy is developing a large corn-ethanol plant near Glen Ullin, North Dakota, with planned annual production of 240 million gallons. The project is expected to consume approximately 84 million bushels of corn annually and generate coproducts including 660,000 tons of distillers grains and 95 million pounds of corn oil. The proposed facility will also include equipment to capture and compress fermentation CO₂ for transport to a planned geological storage site. Link 30/10/2026.
16. Feedstock: USA. ADM is making a series of investments at its Columbus, Nebraska, corn dry mill that the company expects to increase annual corn grind by 20 million bushels in an environment of increasing biofuel demand. The investments are being made in two phases: 2026: Following a series of equipment upgrades and modernization projects completed since 2025, Columbus is operating at higher production rates and is expected to process approximately 10 million more bushels of corn this year than in 2025. 2027: A second round of investments, beginning this fall and expected to be completed next year, will introduce additional technologies to improve yields and reduce natural gas usage per ton of dried distillers grain produced in the facility’s dryers. These enhancements are expected to increase annual corn processing by another 10 million bushels. Link 29/10/2026.
17. Feedstock: USA. Green Plains announced the launch of Farm Forward, a new initiative designed to turn policy innovation into farmer opportunity. Recent biofuels policy developments have created new opportunities to recognize qualifying farming practices and the role they play in producing lower carbon intensity feedstocks. Farm Forward provides a framework for participating farmers to share in the value created through regenerative agriculture practices while supporting and strengthening rural communities. Participating growers may be eligible to earn premiums ranging from 5 cents to 25 cents per qualifying bushel, with five performance bands designed to create multiple opportunities to maximize value returned to producers. Link  28/10/2026.
18. Feedstocks: United Kingdom. An economic analysis by Oxford Economics, representative polling of more than 8,000 consumers and in-depth farmer interviews across eight European markets, Europe’s crop output has grown more slowly than in major agricultural markets including the US, Brazil, China, Canada and India,the new study finds. Geopolitical and climate pressures are increasing risks for farmers while global peers gain faster access to new technologies, widening Europe’s resilience gap. Consumers support science-based innovation and want farmers to have access to technologies that help strengthen food security, resilience and affordability. The findings identify crop agriculture as a strategically important sector that underpins food security and contributes 246 billion euros to EU GDP and 5.7 billion euros to UK GDP, with every 1 billion euros of crop agriculture output supporting almost 3 billion euros of downstream production in other sectors. However, crop output growth in Europe has significantly lagged global peers between 2011 and 2023, averaging just 0.1 percent a year. In the UK, growth was even lower, at 0.0 percent. This compares with 1 percent in the US, a global average of 2 percent, and between 2 and 3 percent in China, Canada and India. Brazil was among the fastest-growing markets, with annual growth averaging 3.3 percent over the period. Link 30/10/2026.
19. Hydrogen: Canada. Denmark’s European Energy (EE) and Canadian solvent and biofuels producer Greenfield Global have unveiled plans to build a 48,000 tonne per year hydrogen-based e-methanol project in Quebec. The pair, which launched a joint venture to support the development, said early engineering studies are already complete and that offtake discussions are set to begin .Link. 30/10/2026
20. Hydrogen: Germany. Germany’s hydrogen pipeline backbone could feature almost 1,500km of active pipelines by the end of 2027, according to the country’s association of gas transmission system operators (TSO), FNB Gas. FNB said 900km of pipelines will be added to 540km of already operational infrastructure. Link 28/10/2026.
21. Hydrogen: Japan. Kawasaki Heavy Industries has broken ground on a 50 tonne per day hydrogen liquefication plant at its liquid hydrogen (LH2) facility in Ogishima, Japan. Planned for completion by 2028 and demonstration operation from 2030, the plant will contribute to validating LH2 as an energy carrier for large-volume, long-distance hydrogen transport. Link 27/10/2026.
22. Hydrogen: Romania. Japanese conglomerate Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) will work with Romanian state-owned gas transport firm Transgaz to develop hydrogen pipelines in Central and Eastern Europe. Under a memorandum of understanding, the pair will combine Transgaz’s pipeline know-how with KHI’s centrifugal hydrogen compression technology to support hydrogen pipeline development in Romania. Transgaz is also a partner in the proposed €4.8bn ($5.4bn) to €6.8bn ($7.6bn) South-East European Hydrogen Corridor, a 3,000km pipeline network aiming to transport hydrogen from southeastern Europe towards Germany. Link 26/10/2026.
23. Marine fuels: Brazil. Bunker One has completed Latin America’s first bioethanol bunkering operation for an ocean-going vessel, delivering 500,000 liters of anhydrous ethanol to the CMA CGM IRON at the Port of Santos, Brazil. The fuel was supplied by Copersucar, one of the world’s leading sugar and bioethanol companies, for delivery to CMA CGM IRON, CMA CGM’s first 13,000 TEU container vessel equipped with a certified tri-fuel engine capable of operating on bioethanol. Bunker One executed the bunkering operation using its barge DONA ISA. The operation is believed to be the first bioethanol bunkering of a deep-sea container vessel in the region. Link 28/10/2026.
24. Marine fuels: Sweden. Wasaline signed an agreement with St1 Biokraft for the supply of 42 GWh of liquefied biogas (LBG) per year. Deliveries will begin in January 2028 and will take place in connection with the bunkering of Aurora Botnia in Vaasa. The ambition for Wasaline is to mainly use locally produced biogas from Suomen Lantakaasu’s new plant in Nurmo, which is situated about 80 km from Vaasa. Wasaline has been using biogas for several years as part of the company’s efforts to reduce emissions from the ferry service between Vaasa and Umeå. Link 26/10/2026.
25. Policy: Brazil. A report highlights that an eventual advance in the biodiesel blend in diesel in Brazil from 15% to 16% in 2027 would raise demand for biofuel by 7% compared to 2026, to 11 billion liters. An increase in the mix could boost the soybean industry, since soybean oil is by far the main raw material for biodiesel production in Brazil. The sector association estimates   that exports of the Brazilian grain could fall in 2027, amid the growth of domestic processing and a higher mix. Link 26/10/2026.

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Political Comment: 

The Vulnerability of Openness: Navigating the New Era of State Capitalism and How New Zealand’s Political Parties Policies Will Influence Economic and Social Development. Why the Bioeconomy is so important for New Zealand's Future!

For decades, the New Zealand economy operated under a clear orthodoxy: radical deregulation, open markets, and a reliance on globalized trade to build wealth. However, as the world pivots toward state capitalism—where governments actively manipulate markets, subsidize domestic industries, and secure physical resources—Aotearoa's hyper-exposed position as a price-taker and its dependence on global resources faces a structural challenge. The global realignment of biomass flows serves as a leading indicator of this new friction, forcing a profound debate over how to insulate the nation from external shocks.

The contemporary biomass trade reveals the real-world mechanics of this mercantilist shift. To shield themselves from volatile global oil values, major feedstock nations like Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil are aggressively nationalizing their supply chains. Policies like Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel blending mandate prioritize domestic energy security over open trade, trapping millions of tonnes of vegetable oils within national borders. This protectionist squeeze creates a direct supply deficit in advanced processing hubs like Germany, forcing them to bid up alternative European waste streams and processed bioproducts.

For New Zealand, the flow-on effects of this resource hoarding are dual-edged. On one hand, global land-use competition between "food and fuel" reduces international crop yields, driving up the global value of primary proteins. This dynamic hands a pricing premium to New Zealand’s dairy and meat exporters, offering a welcome boost to aggregate export revenue. On the other hand, the domestic economy absorbs immediate inflationary pain. New Zealand imports its inflationary pressures at the border through elevated trans-Pacific freight rates and soaring prices for refined fuels, critical chemical inputs like synthetic fertilisers and food.

This tension creates a clear political divide in New Zealand over how to transition from short-term defense to long-term resilience. The immediate, short-term proposition championed by National, ACT, and NZ First focuses on suppressing immediate overheads. By lifting the offshore oil and gas exploration ban and cutting planning red tape, this faction aims to boost domestic energy supply and lower the baseline utility costs that drive grocery inflation. It is a strategy built to minimize immediate price shocks, yet it accepts a continuing dependency on volatile global chemical and material supply lines in the short term.

Conversely, the longer-term proposition advocated by the Greens and Labour demands a structural decoupling. Their focus on scaling back imported synthetic inputs via regenerative farming and protecting food-producing land from carbon-credit forestry aims to insulate New Zealand from global protectionism permanently. However, this path requires consumers to navigate a painful valley of "green inflation," absorbing near-term yield drops and high transition costs before domestic alternatives achieve true scale (if in fact they can, New Zealand is likely to have a trade deficit for many years ahead).

Ultimately, as state capitalism fragments traditional free-market supply chains, New Zealand can no longer rely on openness alone to guarantee stability. Minimizing future cost shocks will require a delicate, synthesis: leveraging short-term supply abundance to shield households today, while methodically building the resource self-sufficiency required to survive tomorrow. A focus on using resources on our door step is going to become increasingly critical.

The challenge ahead is not merely economic, but deeply strategic. As global borders harden and resources become explicit instruments of state power, New Zealand must recognize that absolute trade exposure is no longer a viable approach for economic growth. The true measure of the nation’s future resilience will lie in its ability to master this delicate equilibrium: protecting consumers from the acute shocks of a volatile present, while boldly restructuring the foundational pillars of energy, food, and material supply to secure a sovereign tomorrow. Which political party has these issues on their radar screen is up to you to decide for the 7 November 2026 New Zealand General Election.

I welcome your thoughts and comments.