Gifford Consulting

Global Intelligence:   2-6 November 2026

Weekly Summary

Global alternative fuel markets are expanding rapidly, driven by infrastructure optimization, strategic partnerships, and evolving regulatory support. In Indonesia, Agrinas Palma Nusantara, Pertamina, and Pertamina Power Indonesia are collaborating to evaluate and potentially revitalize PT Bayas Biofuels’ FAME facility, supporting the country's domestic B50 biodiesel goals. India's biofuel sector is active with Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum launching a joint tender for 150 million litres of winter-grade B100 biodiesel. Regulatory dynamics also shift regional markets; the Thai government explores biofuel excise tax cuts to boost agricultural sectors, while Canadian canola oil faces increased competition in the US due to soybean tax advantages. In response, Canada proposes rules granting local biofuels up to 1.8 times more credits than imports to protect internal producers.

Decarbonisation in maritime and aviation transit has fuelled large-scale infrastructure investments. Maersk, Golden Island, and PSA Singapore successfully executed the world's largest simultaneous cargo and ethanol bunkering operation on the vessel Maersk Halifax. Greenfield Global and European Energy established a joint venture near Montréal to produce 48,000 tonnes of e-methanol per year using biogenic carbon dioxide and hydroelectricity. In the United Kingdom, Equisera and VertomCory are developing bio-methanol supply chains for short-sea shipping corridors. Aviation fuel commitments are rising as Shell secured an exclusive long-term offtake agreement from Green Sky Manara in Morocco for up to 150,000 metric tons annually of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using Axens’ HEFA technology. In the United States, Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels secured private equity funding from Black Gold Equity for a woody-biomass-to-SAF refinery.

The gas and power sectors are also transitioning. Jemena is backing Australian biogas projects with Topsoil Organics and Clean Core Development to generate biomethane from agricultural residues. In the Netherlands, Gasunie Transport Services is repurposing a 60-kilometer natural gas pipeline across five municipalities exclusively for biomethane collection. Concurrently, hydrogen deployment accelerates through Germany’s Federal Network Agency contracting 5.1GW of hydrogen-ready turbines, and South Korea’s Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment opening its 2026 hydrogen power bidding market. However, the UK market faces setbacks as the government eliminated specific hydrogen funding mechanisms in its autumn budget. Finally, in the battery materials sector, Stora Enso Oyj and Shanghai Shanshan Technology entered a partnership to build a demonstration line for lignin-based hard carbon anodes to support emerging sodium-ion technologies.

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Weekly Highlights - by Topic

1. Biodiesel: Indonesia. Agrinas Palma Nusantara, Pertamina and Pertamina Power Indonesia  signed two (MoUs) and a Heads of Agreement to expand cooperation in bioenergy and renewable fuels. A key focus is the potential optimization of PT Bayas Biofuels’ FAME production facility in Indragiri Hilir, Riau, which has indicative installed capacity of 600,000 metric tons per year. The companies will jointly assess the plant’s technical, operational, commercial, financial and legal status, considering options to operate, maintain, revitalize or expand the facility. The agreements do not yet confirm a restart or additional biodiesel production. The initiative is intended to strengthen Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel supply chain and support the government’s B50 biodiesel and E20 ethanol programs. Link 02/11/2026.
2. Biofuels: Brazil. Brazil’s agricultural, agro-industrial and forestry sectors accounted for 29.8% of the country’s domestic energy supply in 2025, according to a study by Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). The sector supplied 97.8 million tons of oil equivalent (toe), representing approximately 60% of all renewable energy available in Brazil. Its contribution has grown substantially over five decades from 6.5 million toe in 1970. Between 2021 and 2025, agribusiness-related bioenergy supply increased by around 16%. Link 02/11/2026.
3. Biofuels: India. Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum issued a joint tender to purchase 150 million litres (150,000 kilolitres) of B100 biodiesel for delivery between November 2026 and January 2027. The companies have set a basic procurement price of ₹88 per litre (approximately US$1.00 per litre), excluding GST and transportation. The total base value of the procurement is ₹1,320 crore (approximately $150 million). Eligible feedstocks include used cooking oil and other non-UCO sources, with deliveries planned to 85 locations across India. The tender specifies different winter-grade requirements, including maximum cold filter plugging points of 6°C for 98.3 million litres and 12°C for the remaining 51.7 million liters. Link 04/11/2026.
4. Biofuels: Thailand. The Thai government is considering cutting excise taxes on biofuels, specifically E20 and B20, to make them cheaper than fully imported diesel. The tax relief is intended to directly benefit local farmers who grow the crops used for biofuel production, such as sugar cane, cassava, and oil palms. A primary motivation for the policy is to reduce Thailand’s heavy reliance on foreign energy imports, increase self-reliance, and shrink the national trade deficit. Link 03/11/2026.
5. Biofuels: United Kingdom. global renewable refinery capacity is projected to increase from 11.7 billion gallons per year in 2025 to 35.4 billion gallons per year by 2030, according to GlobalData’s Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition report. The expansion reflects growing demand for lower-carbon fuels across road transport, aviation and shipping. Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are expected to lead near-term growth because they can be used in existing engines and fuel infrastructure with relatively limited modifications. Longer-term opportunities include hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and e-fuels for sectors that are difficult to electrify. GlobalData also highlights opportunities for oil and gas companies to convert existing refineries and develop integrated feedstock, production, logistics and distribution networks. Link 04/11/2026.
6. Biogas: Australia. Jemena is supporting plans for two renewable-gas facilities in regional New South Wales, at Forbes and Cowra. The Forbes project, involving Topsoil Organics, is expected to produce around 150 terajoules of biogas annually, including approximately 100 TJ of biomethane for injection into the gas network. Clean Core Development’s proposed Cowra facility could produce more than 275 TJ of biomethane annually from agricultural residues and organic waste. The agreements are an early step towards development. If delivered, the projects could create new markets for agricultural waste, provide additional revenue opportunities for farmers and supply renewable gas to industrial customers through existing infrastructure. Link 05/11/2026
7. Biogas: The Netherlands. RENDO, Enexis and Coteq, wholly-owned Gasunie subsidiary Gasunie Transport Services (GTS) is repurposing an existing 60-kilometer natural gas pipeline for biomethane collection and transport. This gathering pipeline will be used to collect biomethane from regional networks and transport it to the national transport grid. GTS has repurposed an existing natural gas pipeline by making it available for the collection of biomethane. This has kept the impact of the work on the surrounding area to a minimum. The pipeline runs through five municipalities: Emmen, Coevorden, Hoogeveen, Hardenberg and Ommen. Link 05/11/2026.
8. Biogas: United Kingdom. Equisera is working with VertomCory to explore bio-methanol supply for the shipping sector, with a focus on making low-carbon marine fuel in Britain from UK biogenic waste. The two companies see coastal and short-sea shipping as a practical place to start. These services tend to run to regular patterns and call at a manageable number of UK ports, making them well suited to proving low-carbon fuels at commercial scale through green shipping corridors, where fuel supply, vessels and bunkering infrastructure are developed together. Link 06/11/2026.
9. Biojet/SAF: Morocco.  Shell has signed an exclusive long-term offtake agreement with Green Sky Manara for renewable fuels from a planned production facility at Nador West Med Port in Morocco. The agreement gives Shell rights to approximately 150,000 metric tons per year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), or an equivalent volume of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), alongside bionaphtha and biopropane. The facility is designed to produce up to 200,000 tons annually using waste-based feedstocks and Axens’ HEFA technology, with operations scheduled to begin in October 2028. Link 04/11/2026.
10. Biojet/SAF: USA. Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels (NWABF) entered a strategic funding partnership with private equity firm Black Gold Equity to advance a proposed $3 billion woody-biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) refinery. The partnership is intended to support project development and financing for a facility designed to convert woody biomass into lower-carbon aviation fuel. Link 05/11/2026.
11. Biomaterials: Finland. Stora Enso Oyj announced that it has entered into a partnership with Shanghai Shanshan Technology Co. Ltd (Shanshan Technology), a leader in the development and manufacturing of lithium-ion battery anode materials, to jointly accelerate the development and industrialisation of sustainable battery materials with the construction of a demonstration line for lignin-based hard carbon battery anode materials. Together, the companies will be better positioned to respond to the rapidly growing interest in sodium-ion battery technologies and the increasing demand for sustainable anode materials. Link 03/11/2026.
12. E-fuels: Canada. Greenfield Global and European Energy announced a joint venture (JV) agreement to develop an e-methanol project adjacent to Greenfield’s existing ethanol facility near Montréal, Québec. The project is designed to supply e-methanol to a range of markets, including those requesting European Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO), maritime fuels, and renewable polymers. The e-methanol will meet RFNBO requirements, offering a fuel alternative with deep emissions reductions. Link 02/11/2026.
13. Ethanol: Nigeria.The Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority and 3D NNPC Biofuels Limited signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a €256 million bioethanol plant at Itokin in Lagos State. The authority will provide 200 hectares for the facility and make 15,000 hectares of agricultural land available across Lagos, Ogun, Osun and Oyo states for cassava cultivation. The project will establish an integrated feedstock supply chain, including an out-grower scheme for local farmers. The proposed plant will produce ethanol for blending with petrol. Link 05/11/2026
14. Feedstock: Canada. Canadian canola oil is facing stronger competition in the US biomass-based diesel market as domestic soybean processing capacity expands and soybean oil receives more favourable treatment under the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. CoBank says soybean oil currently has a tax-credit advantage of approximately $0.33–$0.35 per gallon over canola oil, in addition to its existing price advantage. Link 05/11/2026.
15. Feedstock: China. China has an estimated 617 million tonnes of usable organic waste annually that could support expanded biofuel and biomethane production. B24 biodiesel bunkering technology is already mature, and rising orders for methanol-powered ships are helping develop the market. Energy experts are advocating a network linking inland green fuel production to coastal bunkering hubs to turn the country’s renewable resources into a larger marine fuel industry. Link 06/11/2026.
16. Hydrogen :Singapore. Singapore will soon be able to further decarbonize its power supply by incorporating energy sources such as green ammonia and hydrogen. From 2026, town gas in residential and commercial pipelines in Singapore – currently a mix of hydrogen and methane – could include a percentage of green hydrogen. Link 03/11/2026.
17. Hydrogen. Germany. Germany’s Federal Network Agency has awarded contracts for 11 new hydrogen-ready combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) with a total capacity of around 5.1GW of power across the country. Awarded by an auction, the contracts come under a draft law aimed at energy security and maintaining backup power when renewable energy in insufficient. Link. 04/11/2026.
18. Hydrogen: Luxembourg. Luxembourg’s government council approved the first phase of the Hy4Link hydrogen pipeline on October 28, covering a 40km link between Thionville in France and Pétange in southern Luxembourg. The project, part of the European Hydrogen Backbone, is being developed by Creos Luxembourg Hydrogen, NaTran of France and Belgium’s Fluxys Hydrogen. Hy4Link forms part of the European Hydrogen Backbone, the initiative to build a continent-wide hydrogen transport network. Phase 1 is being developed jointly by Creos Luxembourg Hydrogen and NaTran, the French network operator formerly known as GRTgaz. The pipeline will also interconnect with mosaHYc, the cross-border hydrogen network linking France and Germany. Link 02/11/2026.
19. Hydrogen: South Korea. South Korea’s Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment on Friday opened the 2026 hydrogen power generation bidding market, setting bidding volumes of 500 GWh a year of clean hydrogen and 930 GWh a year of general hydrogen power generation. The contract term for the clean hydrogen bidding market is 15 years. Power generation must start by 2030, with a grace period of up to three years for project delays to account for the construction periods of facilities designed for hydrogen co-firing or dedicated hydrogen firing. Link 04/11/2026.
20. Hydrogen: United Kingdom. UK hydrogen has taken a hit in the government’s autumn budget, with the funding mechanism for Hydrogen Allocation Round (HAR) projects scrapped, and £500m ($669m) allocated for the first regional hydrogen network cut. The budget delivered on Wednesday (28 October) was aimed at supporting cost of living pressures, with extended cuts on domestic electricity and direct energy payments to some households. Link 02/11/2026.
21. Marine fuels: Singapore. Maersk, Golden Island and PSA Singapore (PSA) successfully completed Singapore’s first ethanol bunkering operation at PSA’s Pasir Panjang Terminal, with the support of the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. The operation was conducted simultaneously with cargo operations (SIMOPS), with bioethanol bunkered using a mass flow meter (MFM). Maersk Halifax, a Singapore-registered dual-fuel container vessel, was bunkered with approximately 5000 metric tonnes of ISCC-certified bioethanol from Golden Island’s Singapore-registered IMO Type II chemical tanker, MT Golden Centaurus, while container operations were carried out concurrently. This was the largest volume of ethanol bunkered in a single operation globally to date. Link 06/11/2026.
22. Methanol: Canada. Greenfield Global and Denmark’s European Energy announced a joint venture to develop a 48,000 tonne per year e-methanol plant near Montréal, combining renewable electricity with carbon dioxide from an existing ethanol distillery to supply marine fuel and industrial markets. The project would use biogenic CO₂ generated during ethanol fermentation, taking advantage of Québec’s low-cost hydroelectricity, established industrial infrastructure and export routes to European and domestic markets. Link 06/11/2026.
23. Methanol: India. An International Maritime Organization-supported study identifies methanol as the most suitable initial alternative marine fuel for India as the country develops its regional bunkering market. It recommends concentrating early investment at four strategic ports: Mundra, Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT), Chennai and Tuticorin. A potential first methanol-bunkering pilot could be established at Mundra, supplied from Deendayal Port in Kandla. The proposed development pathway begins with safe, competitive bunkering between 2026 and 2030, expands operations and prepares for ammonia between 2030 and 2035, and targets multi-fuel bunkering and green shipping corridors through 2047. Link 02/11/2026.
24. Policy: Canada. A new Canadian Government policy  is proposing to give Canadian-made biofuels extra points under its clean fuel rules in the hope of making it more valuable to companies and giving producers in the country a leg up against foreign competitors. Ottawa wants more biofuels made in Canada. The proposed rules would give fuels made in Canada 1.3 to 1.8 times as many credits as the equivalent imported ones. Link 06/11/2026.

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Political Comment: 

The Multipolar Bioeconomy: Why New Zealand Must Move Beyond Isolated Innovations – a Task for the Incoming Government after the 7 November General Election

The global bioeconomy—slated to scale to $30 trillion by 2050—is no longer just an open, collaborative trade arena. As hyper-globalisation gives way to a multipolar world driven by state capitalism, biological assets, biotechnology, and resource supply chains are being increasingly treated as instruments of national security and economic sovereignty.

The world's major power blocs are already taking various positions:

• The USA is leveraging significant public subsidies to build an innovation-first Biotechnology Vision and to support renewable biofuels, such as ethanol,  which are all designed to isolate geopolitical rivals and prioritise local industries.
• China blends aggressive state-directed agricultural biotechnology with deep resource security to protect food sovereignty.
• Europe leans heavily toward a rigid Bioecology Vision, using circular economy mandates to establish global regulatory standards.

For a small, trade-dependent nation like New Zealand, this fragmented global landscape poses a high-stakes challenge. If we remain a price taker exporter of raw biological commodities while importing high-value finished products, we leave our economy dangerously exposed to protectionist trading blocs and volatile supply shocks.

To thrive, New Zealand must completely reframe its approach. The bioeconomy is fundamentally a Systems Challenge. We can no longer treat agriculture, forestry, science, and energy as separate silos. We must integrate our energy transition, industrial processing capabilities, and land-use systems into a unified national approach to build national resilience.

Integrating New Zealand’s Systems Imperative

Fortunately, New Zealand is not starting from a blank canvas. Important foundational pieces are already occuring, but they must be structurally connected to create a resilient, domestic renewable carbon loop:

1. Land Use Systems: Turning Biodiscovery into Commercial IP

The establishment of the Bioeconomy Science Institute provides the centralized scientific leadership New Zealand has long required - though there is still a lot of work to be done to get the focus of this agency right. Backed by fresh funding for the national Biodiscovery Platform, our focus must shift from simply exporting primary volume to mapping, sequencing, and adding value to our unique biological assets at home. Crucially, this pipeline must embed in systems that safeguard our data sovereignty, ensuring that the high-value downstream IP generated here isn't quietly captured by foreign entities.

2. Industrial Systems: Scaling Bioprocessing and Modernising Regulation

Our recent public-private investment in a domestic commercial bioprocessing factory is an excellent proof-of-concept. However, a single facility cannot move the needle on national resilience. We need to use this plant as a blueprint to scale a regional network of high-value manufacturing hubs across biomass-rich areas such as the Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Canterbury and the Southern part of South Island.

This physical infrastructure is potentially being unlocked by the proposed Gene Technology Bill, which replaces our outdated genetic modification laws. By establishing an independent Gene Technology Regulator that operates in harmony with Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ), we can safely utilize targeted tools like CRISPR to boost crop, agricutlural and forestry resilience.

3. Energy Systems: Fuel Sovereignty via Residual Biomass

An isolated island nation cannot afford to rely entirely on overseas supply lines for critical liquid fuels and energy (critically needed to support our export economy). Our massive plantation forestry sector and agricultural waste streams are prime feedstocks for advanced biobased production facilities. Our agricultural sector can contribute to the production of biogas which can then feed into the natural gas distribution network. By introducing clear domestic mandates that biobased materials alternative fuels for such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels marine biofuels and biogas, we can create a guaranteed market that insulates our transport networks from overseas trade conflicts while attracting long-term private capital into the supporting these growth sectors.

The Path Forward: Managing the Transition

As New Zealand navigates the post-election landscape, the immediate task for the incoming Government is to weave these isolated initiatives into a comprehensive national integrated approach. This is not centralised planning, just more common sense, good coordination and wise use of resources.

An important part of this transition will be maintaining a strict coexistence framework. As the Gene Technology Regulator streamlines approvals for industrial applications, we should implement rigorous traceability and labelling mechanisms to protect our premium non-GE and organic agricultural brands in sensitive consumer markets like Europe.

In a multipolar world, we cannot out-subsidise the global giants, but we can out-integrate them. By assessing our national transition readiness and matching our projects directly to our regional resource capabilities, New Zealand can turn its biological footprint into a significant sovereign advantage.

At Gifford Consulting, we track where the global energy, materials, and bioeconomy transitions are heading. We assess the resilience of national and regional systems and identify the investment opportunities that fit local capabilities. Connect with us to explore how your organization or region can navigate these shifting global geopolitical changes.

Footnote: The outcome of the mid -term elections in the USA may slow down some of these global  processes driving protectionism, but the longer-term outlook is for sovereignity issues and state capitalism to strengthen as countries confront tightening fiscal conditions. We will be closely monitoring these trends and their influence on developing bioeconomies.

I welcome your thoughts and comments.